Somalia issued a stern warning to Ethiopia on Thursday, saying Addis Ababa's forces would be barred from a new African Union peacekeeping mission unless it annuls a maritime deal with Somaliland.
Addressing lawmakers in the capital Mogadishu, Prime Minister Hamza Barre said Somalia had effectively boxed Ethiopia into a corner over the controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU), which granted Ethiopia access to the Red Sea coast in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland's independence.
"If Ethiopia does not withdraw from the MoU, its forces will not be allowed to participate in the upcoming African Union Support Mission in Somalia," Barre said, referring to plans to transition from the existing ATMIS mandate next year.
Somalia suspended an earlier transition in July, citing security concerns stemming from Ethiopia's actions. Last week, the UN authorized ATMIS to remain through December 2024.
Barre said all Ethiopian troops must depart by then. But Ethiopia's foreign ministry asserted Addis Ababa's "right to self-defense", with a spokesman saying "no power can stop Ethiopia from necessary action."
The spat risks derailing months of Turkish-led diplomacy to resolve the core dispute over the MoU. Somalia's foreign minister accused Ethiopia of hindering those efforts with recent "exacerbating" remarks.
With negotiations deadlocked and tensions rising, Somalia is coordinating with allies like Egypt and Djibouti to safeguard its borders and resources - setting the stage for a possible showdown between the historic rivals in the Horn of Africa.
Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia already escalated this week as Mogadishu threatened to suspend Ethiopian Airlines flights over alleged sovereignty violations.
In a statement, Somalia's Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) said it had previously written to Ethiopian Airlines on August 14 expressing concerns about "violations of Somali sovereignty" related to flight destinations.
While the SCAA did not provide details, observers say the issue centers on Ethiopian Airlines flights to the breakaway region of Somaliland. Many in Mogadishu do not recognize Somaliland's independence.
"Instead of addressing our concerns, Ethiopian Airlines has tried to skirt the issue by removing references to Somali destinations and just using airport codes," the SCAA said, warning suspensions could follow if the matter is not resolved.
The tensions have drawn in other regional powers. Egypt, Ethiopia's arch-rival over Nile water issues, has already signed on to join ATMIS - a move rejected by some Somalis who accuse Cairo of using Mogadishu as a proxy in its conflicts with Addis Ababa dating back decades.