Tigray is like no other region in Ethiopia. Despite making up an estimated six percent of the Ethiopia's population, it is a place where the country is incepted, a fact that is hard to deny. It is in this region the plights of the two biggest religions of Ethiopians- Islamic faith and Christianity- started. A birthplace to one of the oldest African civilization- Aksumite Kingdom- Tigray is deeply entrenched in the hearts of Ethiopia- another fact that one cannot overlook whenever discussing about Ethiopia.
Underneath the much-celebrated historical value of the region, there was a misery.
The region has been a battleground for powers attempted to invade the country, be it at the time when the state was called Abyssinia or during the modern age of the Ethiopian empire. Unfortunately, it also saw a three-decade old internal armed struggle, leading to death of hundred thousands, while causing a famine which the world doesn’t want to see again.
That happened by the end of the last quarter of 20th century- not strange- being an event coincided with Arab-Israeli conflict, a fighting that has killed hundred thousands people, including civilians and displaced millions. For the Arabs and Israelis, the war is at least abridged now- with all involved parties finally making a peace for a better future- keeping aside the recurrent conflict with Palestine.
The story is different for Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia, where exactly history is repeating itself. Five million people – almost all Tigrayans- are now aid dependent. There is no economic activity in the region. Investors have already fled the region fearing for their lives. Factories are producing nothing, with their machineries decaying beyond repair.
Farmers are on war field, joining the call by the Tigray People Liberation Front, whom some considers as a guardian of Tigrayans. Many entrepreneurs, daily labourers and civil servants, who were supposed to be running the region’s economy, are on war field. Millions of people living in the region are on the verge of facing the country’s worst famine in almost half a century.
People in other regions are suffering too. Just last month, the government disclosed that close to half a million people living in Afar and Amhara regional states have been displaced because of the war. Losing the centre of Tigray - Mekelle- to the rebel forces of Tigray (under the leadership of the TPLF), the federal government embarked on taking desperate measures.
It has mobilised thousands of people throughout the country for the war. There is more. Government agencies that were supposed to engage in productive activities are busy with looking for funds for the war. The economic repercussion of the war is not also easy. Officials may believe the problem has been contained. Unfortunately, that is not true.
The country is losing at least 20 million dollars in export revenues because of the war. Investors’ confidence is at its lowest, probably in a decade and half. Local investors, majority of whom are Tigrayan descent, are being hunted down for no logical reason. Applying one size fits all approaches, officials are cracking down against Tigrayans, including even those who have no connection with the TPLF, with authorities- from down to top- becoming anxious than ever.
That is not a good sign.
Fearing an economic sabotage, the National Bank of Ethiopia – the highest authority in the financial sector- have ordered banks to freeze loans, unpleasantly, for unspecified period of time, leaving businesses in cold. Commercials banks do not seem pleased with the decision of the government. Sitting on over half a trillion Br deposit, they are paying interests while making no income from their main lines of business.
In the same fashion, businesses in the construction industry seems to stuck in freezing mode. The Addis Ababa City Administration suspended land services. It is not also issuing construction permits. Both brought the property market to a standstill. Unfortunately, problems with such magnitude does not seem enough for officials to take measures that would put an end to the crisis that all Ethiopians are facing.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is employing all options at his hand to destroy TPLFites, whom his administration tagged as a terrorist, once and for all. The rebel forces in Tigray seems unwilling to accept his administration’s last offer of calling a ceasefire. They have put preconditions totally not welcoming to the leaders in Addis Abeba and Bahir Dar. Eritrea, which is in favor of Abiy, is warming up to launch another offensive attack against their old foes, making the war more unpredictable.
Only one option seems to be left on the table, involving external players to mediate both sides. For now, the US seems untrusted partner in the eyes of officials in Addis, who have the same view towards Europe as well. African Union, despite having not a good track record in settling dispute among Africans, can play a non-partisan role to mediate both sides though, adding to the UN that can even play a bigger role by deploying peacekeeping forces in disputed areas. This may not help to resurrect thousands of Ethiopian who have already lost their lives because of the insensible war. But it will at least save many others whose live is at stake.
Equally important is ensuring unfettered humanitarian access to the People in Tigray and rebuilding the region’s economy. Of course, the rebuilding process was already underway by the central government before TPLF- led forces regain control central and northern parts of Tigray. But if the warring parties still willing to make sacrifices and compromise for a better future, nothing would stop them from bringing lasting peace to Ethiopia and the Horn of African region.
